Toronto Raptors - 🦖🍁 #WeTheNorth 🍁🦖 /u/VanVleet-goes-for-22

I was making this to be a comment on a different post but put too much work into it and decided to make it it’s own post to get more discussion / feedback.

One of the main reasons he had a low FG% (39%) is BECAUSE he took less shots at the rim (where he shot 53%). Small PGs in general are going to have low FG% because their shot profiles are extremely 3PT heavy and FG% doesn’t differentiate between 2PT shots and 3PT shots like eFG% or TS% does. If he shot all of his shots from 3 for example and shot it at a 38% clip, he’d have a 38% FG%, which is a bad FG% but a great 3PT%/TS%/eFG%.

Last year he had a 53.4% TS (which is still poor, but not as poor as the FG% makes you think). If you break down his shot selection from the past year, his low TS% can be tied to a few things

  • His lack of finishing (both in volume and percentage)
  • His decreased 3PT% (after the COVID break he went from 39% on 9 attempts to 33% on 10 attempts)
  • His poor midrange shooting (shot more midrange shots, shot around 38% on these)

If league average TS% is 57%, he has to;

  • Shoot 50% from the line
  • Shoot 57% from 2
  • Shoot 38% from 3

I don’t think he’ll ever shoot 57% from 2, Lowry was a way better finisher than most guys his size and he capped out around 51-52%. Vanvleet’s path to league average efficiency is in getting a higher 3PT efficiency, getting a higher FT volume and cutting out the midrange jumpers (or getting substantially better in the midrange).

In Lowry’s 2019-20 season, he had a 59% TS even though he shot 50% from 2 and 35% from 3. He managed to sneak above average due to his 6 FTAs a game where he shot 86%. If you remove those 6 attempts per game entirely, Lowry’s 59% TS drops to 52% TS (It would drop a lot more if the ref decided to not call a foul, turning FTs into a missed shot).

Prior to getting COVID/injury, FVV was having an ok season efficiency wise. 39% on 9 threes a game, 89% from the line on 4 attempts per game, 42% from 2, 55% TS. Just looking at his pre-COVID numbers, his finishing was really bad, but his midrange/non-restricted area paint shots were also really poor (sub 40% in those categories). If he could bump those midrange numbers up to the high 40s, he could get to league average.

If the pre-COVID FVV is the real FVV in terms of what we can expect from him this season, I think getting him to average efficiency won’t be that difficult . Improving his midrange game, potentially adding a floater/runner to avoid having to get buried in the restricted area and getting to the line more with veteran tricks could all boost his efficiency.

submitted by /u/VanVleet-goes-for-22
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